In 2009, new home starts will reach 350 new homes from 428 starts recorded in 2008, contracting by 18 per cent. Single-detached starts are forecast to decline by 20 per cent, while row homes and apartments will decrease by 14 per cent. The downward momentum in the economy has lessened new construction demand. Also, slower population growth and less spill-over demand from the resale market have contributed to the slow down in demand for new homes. However in 2010, this trend will change due to the gradually improving provincial economy and declining new home inventories. The number of starts will increase by six per cent to 370 units. Demand for affordable housing is increasing. A number of social housing projects are planned or underway to accommodate the increased demand for this type of housing.

The new home price will average 343,000 in 2009 and 355,000 in 2010. New single-detached prices will de- crease by 0.6 per cent in 2009 as the prices adjust to slower demand, consumer cautiousness and less con- struction of high-value homes. As the economy recovers in 2010, new home prices will increase by 3.5 per cent.

In the longer term, new home construction is expected to increase. Migration will be a dominant element in increasing demand for new homes. With land constraints raising prices in other areas and improved transportation and infrastructure projects making Peterborough more accessible to Toronto, it’s expected to see more in-migration to Peterborough. Aging baby boomers will increase their movement to Peterborough, seeing it as an attractive place for retirement. Furthermore, improved economic conditions and job prospects in the region in the next several years will reduce out-migration.

As home prices and mortgage carrying costs rise, the demand for the more expensive homes will be tempered. More interest will be seen for higher-density forms of housing in coming years. Even though demand for single-detached homes will slow, this type of housing will remain the product of choice for homebuyers. Single-detached homes demand in Peterborough is supported by mature migrants mainly coming from Toronto, availability of land and the price differential comparing to other centres in Ontario.

Demand for resale homes is expected to moderate by four per cent in 2009 to 2400 from 2506 recorded in 2008. In 2010, we will see the same trend. Sales will register 2300 sold homes, a decrease of four per cent from 2009. Low carrying costs, a relatively low unemployment rate and affordable prices will help to limit the decline in demand in 2009. Some purchases, initially planned for 2010, will take place in 2009 as people buy before anticipated mortgage rate increases raising sales in 2009 and lowering them in 2010.

In 2009, sellers have been hesitating about entering the housing market. As a result, new listings will decrease by 13 per cent in 2009. Moreover, the fall of new listings will outpace the decline of sales. In 2010, more new listings will flow into the market as sellers respond to rising prices.

The combination of declining new listings and improving sales by mid- 2009 meant that the sales-to-new- listings ratio, a barometer of future housing price growth and a measure of market conditions, moved up. Peterborough’s resale housing market has been balanced through much of 2009, but moved into sellers’ territory during some months. In 2010, the market is expected to be in balance for most of the year. A balanced market is characterized by price growth around the rate of inflation. Peterborough prices will increase by about four per cent in 2010, faster than in 2009. Resale prices are expected to increase by 1.7 per cent this year to $234,500 from $230,656 registered last year.

As a result of a sizzling month of sales in June, Canada’s two largest real estate markets — Toronto and Vancouver — came close to breaking their all-time sales records.

In Toronto, the nearly 11,000 properties sold last month marked a 27 per cent sales increase over the previous June. And in Vancouver, where 4,259 units changed hands last month, sales were up 75.6 per cent from 12 months ago.

Major year-over-year gains were also seen in Calgary (28 per cent), Regina (24 per cent), Edmonton (15.8 per cent) and Ottawa (12.5 per cent). Sales were also up 5.2 per cent in the Halifax-Dartmouth area over the previous June and had inched up 0.8 per cent in Newfoundland and Labrador.

According to RE/MAX, most of Canada’s major real estate markets had begun to recover from the recession as early as March, with sales picking further up in April and May, leading to the high levels of sales seen in June.

Michael Polzler, the executive vice-president of RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada, says the boom in sales is the result of affordable prices and mortgages, as well as pent-up demand among homebuyers.

It’s a trend that could also help the wider economy, he said, because it will spur homeowners to spend on home improvements.

“When people start buying houses, they have to buy all the things that go along with those houses,” Polzler told CTV’s Canada AM on Monday morning. “Often it means a new fridge, a new carpet, painting, fixing up this, fixing up that. Even when you buy a new house, there’s a lot of things to buy. So, it helps everybody connected.”

Looking forward to the rest of the year, RE/MAX is expecting to see a more stable real estate market, though sales may not continue at the current pace.

Polzler believes that many Canadians favour real estate as a form of investment, as opposed to putting their money in private business opportunities.

“Most Canadians are very uncomfortable and unsure about the stock market,” he said. “And when you see that through these difficult times, prices in real estate have come down a little bit in most places — and in many cases are back up — they feel a lot more control than they do in the stock market.”

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090713/real_estate_090713/20090713?hub=TopStories

reviewed by Moishe Alexander, CFC canadian funding corp CEO

A new forecast from a major Canadian real estate company predicts that the national housing market is stabilizing, after seeing a “remarkable turnaround” in the second quarter of 2009.

Royal LePage predicts that the selling price of the average house will drop by only two per cent this year — an improvement over the real estate company’s prior forecast from six months ago that predicted a three per cent drop.

The real estate company also predicts that the number of unit sales will drop about one per cent in 2009 to an estimated 430,000 sales.

Phil Soper, the president and CEO of Royal LePage Real Estate Services, said that the forecast adjustment is the result of the improved real estate sales numbers seen in the second quarter of this year.

“We’ve got the most important quarter in the real estate calendar behind us — the second quarter — and it really was a remarkable turnaround,” Soper said during an interview on CTV’s Canada AM on Tuesday morning.

“As steep as the decline was, the bounce-back was just as dramatic,” he added.

While the year’s second quarter saw housing prices beginning to appreciate, the average national housing prices still remain below their values from 12 months ago.

According to the Royal LePage figures:

* The average price of a detached bungalow declined to $327,964, about 3.5 per cent below what it was the year before
* The average price of a two-storey home was down 3.7 per cent to $392,378
* The average price of a condominium dropped four per cent to $236,612

Soper said a combination of lower mortgage prices and a housing supply shortage in parts of Canada helped push the market upward during the second quarter.

But he cautioned that the market still has a long way to go, when it comes to recovering the value lost during the recent setback.

“It’s going to look better for the second half of this year,” he said. “It’s not going to be a startlingly good year like earlier in the decade, but I think just the bounce-back, the comeback from where we were, is going to make a lot of Canadians feel a lot more comfortable about the homes they live in.”

In many Western Canadian cities, including Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver, housing prices are still between 10 and 15 per cent below what they were a year ago, Soper said. But they are “gaining back ground,” he said.

In Ontario, Royal LePage said Ottawa would likely see stable prices throughout 2009, with Toronto’s market stabilizing towards the end of the year.

Montreal is expected to remain a strong real estate market this year, helped by low interest and unemployment rates.

In Atlantic Canada, housing prices were much more stable than in cities further west in Canada throughout the recession, meaning that their pricing fluctuations have been less volatile overall, Soper said.

And according to the Royal LePage figures, demand for housing has so far been strong in 2009, due to strong local economies coupled with moderate housing prices.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090707/real_estate_090707/20090707?hub=CanadaAM

brought by Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO

* Would be first time below 200,000 in seven years

* Existing home sales, prices also seen falling

* Slight rebound seen in 2010

(Adds details)

By Ka Yan Ng

TORONTO, Feb 19 (Reuters) – New home construction in Canada is expected to drop by 24 percent this year as part of the fallout from a slowing economy, but rebound in 2010, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp forecast on Thursday.

Housing starts are seen to be about 160,250 units for 2009, down sharply from 211,056 units in 2008, the country’s national housing agency said in its first-quarter Housing Market Outlook report.

The forecast was revised lower from its the fourth-quarter outlook, which predicted in October that Canadian home building would slip to 177,975 units this year.

This would put starts below 200,000 units for the first time in seven years.

Low mortgage rates and a growing economy contributed to a healthy housing market for years. But home construction, a cornerstone of Canadian growth, has steadily declined in each of last four months as the economy felt the bite of the global financial crisis.

“The economic downturn will result in a decrease in demand for home ownership leading to a decline in housing starts and existing home sales in 2009,” Bob Dugan, chief economist for CMHC, said in a statement.

“Housing market activity will begin to strengthen as the Canadian economy rebounds in 2010 and the level of housing starts over the forecast period will be more in line with demographic fundamentals. ”

All 10 provinces are expected to show declines in new home construction this year, it said, led by the Western provinces, each with more than 30-percent drops expected for the year.

Most provinces may see an uptick in home building activity in 2010, with the exception of Quebec and British Columbia.

Existing home sales, explaines Moishe Alexander, as measured by the Multiple Listing Service system used by real estate agents, are expected to decline 14.6 percent during 2009 to 370,500 units from 433,990 units last year. The average home price is expected to fall 5.2 percent to C$287,900 ($230,320) from C$303,607 a year ago.

Last week, data showed sales of previously owned Canadian homes plunged 41 percent in January from a year earlier while prices dropped 11 percent.

Looking to 2010, starts should rise a bit to 163,350 units, CMHC said, while home sales and prices are also expected to climb.

Sales of previously-owned homes are expected to rise by 9.3 percent to 405,000 units in 2010, and the average national home price may inch higher to C$288,100 from the forecasted 2009 level, CMHC said.

($1=$1.25 Canadian) (Reporting by Ka Yan Ng; Editing by Jeffrey Hodgson)

According to Moishe Alexander, the Government of Canada, the Government of Ontario and the City of Toronto today announced $4.34 million in funding that will help to create 62 new affordable rental homes for seniors under the Canada – Ontario Affordable Housing Program.

The announcement was made by Jim Flaherty, Finance Minister and Minister Responsible for the GTA, on behalf of the Honourable Diane Finley, Minister of Human Resources and Social Development Canada and Minister Responsible for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC); Laurel Broten, MPP for Etobicoke – Lakeshore, on behalf of the Honourable Jim Watson, Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing; and Councillor Giorgio Mammoliti, Chair, Affordable Housing Committee, City of Toronto, on behalf of Mayor David Miller.

“The Government of Canada is committed to making affordable housing available in Ontario and across Canada for those who need it most,” said Minister Flaherty.  “These seniors in Toronto will now have access to quality, affordable housing and the services that meet their specific needs, while remaining close to their families and friends in the community.”

“Access to safe, affordable housing is vitally important to the economic and social well-being of Ontario’s communities,” said MPP Broten.  “Through this allocation to the City of Toronto, the McGuinty government is renewing its commitment to work with our housing partners to grow the supply of affordable housing.”

The City of Toronto is investing an additional $3.2 million, as well as waiving development charges and property taxes.

“I’m proud that we are able to provide much needed affordable housing for Torontonians as well as create jobs,” Coun. Mammoliti said. “By working together, all orders of government are making Toronto a city that is liveable, prosperous and provides opportunity to all residents.”

The $4.34 million allocation to Toronto will help fund the conversion of a former chronic-care facility into seniors housing at 717 Broadview Ave. The development is being led by Toronto Community Housing Corporation.

The Canada – Ontario Affordable Housing Program comprises a commitment of $301 million from the federal and provincial governments. In total, the federal, provincial and municipal governments will invest at least $734 million in the program, which will provide affordable housing for 20,000 households in Ontario.

For more information:

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/nero/nere/2009/2009-02-10-1000f.cfm