In 2009, new home starts will reach 350 new homes from 428 starts recorded in 2008, contracting by 18 per cent. Single-detached starts are forecast to decline by 20 per cent, while row homes and apartments will decrease by 14 per cent. The downward momentum in the economy has lessened new construction demand. Also, slower population growth and less spill-over demand from the resale market have contributed to the slow down in demand for new homes. However in 2010, this trend will change due to the gradually improving provincial economy and declining new home inventories. The number of starts will increase by six per cent to 370 units. Demand for affordable housing is increasing. A number of social housing projects are planned or underway to accommodate the increased demand for this type of housing.

The new home price will average 343,000 in 2009 and 355,000 in 2010. New single-detached prices will de- crease by 0.6 per cent in 2009 as the prices adjust to slower demand, consumer cautiousness and less con- struction of high-value homes. As the economy recovers in 2010, new home prices will increase by 3.5 per cent.

In the longer term, new home construction is expected to increase. Migration will be a dominant element in increasing demand for new homes. With land constraints raising prices in other areas and improved transportation and infrastructure projects making Peterborough more accessible to Toronto, it’s expected to see more in-migration to Peterborough. Aging baby boomers will increase their movement to Peterborough, seeing it as an attractive place for retirement. Furthermore, improved economic conditions and job prospects in the region in the next several years will reduce out-migration.

As home prices and mortgage carrying costs rise, the demand for the more expensive homes will be tempered. More interest will be seen for higher-density forms of housing in coming years. Even though demand for single-detached homes will slow, this type of housing will remain the product of choice for homebuyers. Single-detached homes demand in Peterborough is supported by mature migrants mainly coming from Toronto, availability of land and the price differential comparing to other centres in Ontario.

Demand for resale homes is expected to moderate by four per cent in 2009 to 2400 from 2506 recorded in 2008. In 2010, we will see the same trend. Sales will register 2300 sold homes, a decrease of four per cent from 2009. Low carrying costs, a relatively low unemployment rate and affordable prices will help to limit the decline in demand in 2009. Some purchases, initially planned for 2010, will take place in 2009 as people buy before anticipated mortgage rate increases raising sales in 2009 and lowering them in 2010.

In 2009, sellers have been hesitating about entering the housing market. As a result, new listings will decrease by 13 per cent in 2009. Moreover, the fall of new listings will outpace the decline of sales. In 2010, more new listings will flow into the market as sellers respond to rising prices.

The combination of declining new listings and improving sales by mid- 2009 meant that the sales-to-new- listings ratio, a barometer of future housing price growth and a measure of market conditions, moved up. Peterborough’s resale housing market has been balanced through much of 2009, but moved into sellers’ territory during some months. In 2010, the market is expected to be in balance for most of the year. A balanced market is characterized by price growth around the rate of inflation. Peterborough prices will increase by about four per cent in 2010, faster than in 2009. Resale prices are expected to increase by 1.7 per cent this year to $234,500 from $230,656 registered last year.

After declining significantly at the beginning of the year, the Montréal census metropolitan area (CMA) housing market has been showing signs of picking up for the past few months. This increase in activity on the housing market is coinciding with an improvement in economic conditions, as several indicators are suggesting that economic growth will soon resume. In this environment, the housing market will be relatively stable in 2010, for both residential construction and resale activity.

Economic conditions have substantially improved since the beginning of the year, as the financial crisis is largely over. Governments’ expansionary monetary and fiscal policies allowed for the massive injection of capital that stabilized the financial markets and revitalized the economies.

In Quebec, the economy is showing signs of an imminent recovery, and GDP is expected to grow in 2010. Employment, which tends to start growing again with some lag behind the economic cycle, should pick up slowly during 2010. The number of jobs should fall by 1.3 per cent this year, which should drive up the unemployment rate to 9.5 per cent in the Montréal CMA. After having increased rapidly since the beginning of the year, the unemployment rate has been rising more slowly in the last few months, as employment has stabilized to a certain extent. Even if the worst of the job losses is now over, the labour market will remain anemic, with a small gain in jobs (+0.4 per cent) next year, which will limit income growth and housing demand. In 2010, the unemployment rate should reach 9.6 per cent.

During the period from September 2008 to September 2009, employment in the Montréal CMA declined by 1.1 per cent from the previous twelve months, as around 21,300 jobs were eliminated. The losses were concentrated in full-time jobs ( 1.3 per cent), as part-time jobs rose slightly (+0.1 per cent). As well, the job cuts particularly affected young people aged from 15 to 24 years ( 3.5 per cent) and also people aged from 25 to 44 years ( 1.3 per cent).

The financial sector has been the hardest hit by the job losses for the past year. In the midst of the crisis that shook the financial markets, the companies in this sector cut their workforces by more than 10 per cent in one year. In all, about 15,000 jobs were eliminated in this sector. The improvement of the situation on the financial markets now seems to have stemmed the hemorrhage of jobs in this sector.

A more significant sector in terms of number of jobs, trade–and more particularly retail trade–also registered considerable job losses in the last twelve months ( 7 per cent). In fact, more than 16,000 jobs were eliminated in this sector, but the situation should stabilize over the coming quarters, as economic conditions improve.

After having declined for four consecutive years, employment in the manufacturing sector seems to have stabilized in recent quarters but, with the strong Canadian dollar, the recovery in this sector remains uncertain. The slowdown of the Montréal housing market at the beginning of 2009 sharply affected employment in the construction sector, which had posted two years of solid growth. The massive investments in infrastructure will support employment in this sector in the Montréal area in 2010.

The Commercial Financing Market in 2009

Increasing concerns over commercial lending exposure at regional banks is growing as most experts think commercial lending credit declines will likely increase sharply this year.
Loan losses are on the rise to 1.5% to 2% of all commercial loans this year from around 1% currently. But just because a certain percentage of loans are going bad this doesn’t mean that banks still can’t or won’t lend. In fact rates are low and banks are still lending. Wells Fargo’s report that commercial mortgage refinancing went particularly well in the first three months of 2009 prompted broad feelings of relief among investors who now believe banks may be able to earn their way out of their difficult circumstances. Many regional commercial lenders and banks are going under which is creating more business and more opportunities for the banks that survive.

http://www.bcab.org/2009/07/16/commercial-finance-site-launches-to-help-business-owners-and-commercial-real-estate-investors-reach-capital/

brought by Moishe Alexander, CFC  canadian funding corp CEO

As a result of a sizzling month of sales in June, Canada’s two largest real estate markets — Toronto and Vancouver — came close to breaking their all-time sales records.

In Toronto, the nearly 11,000 properties sold last month marked a 27 per cent sales increase over the previous June. And in Vancouver, where 4,259 units changed hands last month, sales were up 75.6 per cent from 12 months ago.

Major year-over-year gains were also seen in Calgary (28 per cent), Regina (24 per cent), Edmonton (15.8 per cent) and Ottawa (12.5 per cent). Sales were also up 5.2 per cent in the Halifax-Dartmouth area over the previous June and had inched up 0.8 per cent in Newfoundland and Labrador.

According to RE/MAX, most of Canada’s major real estate markets had begun to recover from the recession as early as March, with sales picking further up in April and May, leading to the high levels of sales seen in June.

Michael Polzler, the executive vice-president of RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada, says the boom in sales is the result of affordable prices and mortgages, as well as pent-up demand among homebuyers.

It’s a trend that could also help the wider economy, he said, because it will spur homeowners to spend on home improvements.

“When people start buying houses, they have to buy all the things that go along with those houses,” Polzler told CTV’s Canada AM on Monday morning. “Often it means a new fridge, a new carpet, painting, fixing up this, fixing up that. Even when you buy a new house, there’s a lot of things to buy. So, it helps everybody connected.”

Looking forward to the rest of the year, RE/MAX is expecting to see a more stable real estate market, though sales may not continue at the current pace.

Polzler believes that many Canadians favour real estate as a form of investment, as opposed to putting their money in private business opportunities.

“Most Canadians are very uncomfortable and unsure about the stock market,” he said. “And when you see that through these difficult times, prices in real estate have come down a little bit in most places — and in many cases are back up — they feel a lot more control than they do in the stock market.”

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090713/real_estate_090713/20090713?hub=TopStories

reviewed by Moishe Alexander, CFC canadian funding corp CEO

A new forecast from a major Canadian real estate company predicts that the national housing market is stabilizing, after seeing a “remarkable turnaround” in the second quarter of 2009.

Royal LePage predicts that the selling price of the average house will drop by only two per cent this year — an improvement over the real estate company’s prior forecast from six months ago that predicted a three per cent drop.

The real estate company also predicts that the number of unit sales will drop about one per cent in 2009 to an estimated 430,000 sales.

Phil Soper, the president and CEO of Royal LePage Real Estate Services, said that the forecast adjustment is the result of the improved real estate sales numbers seen in the second quarter of this year.

“We’ve got the most important quarter in the real estate calendar behind us — the second quarter — and it really was a remarkable turnaround,” Soper said during an interview on CTV’s Canada AM on Tuesday morning.

“As steep as the decline was, the bounce-back was just as dramatic,” he added.

While the year’s second quarter saw housing prices beginning to appreciate, the average national housing prices still remain below their values from 12 months ago.

According to the Royal LePage figures:

* The average price of a detached bungalow declined to $327,964, about 3.5 per cent below what it was the year before
* The average price of a two-storey home was down 3.7 per cent to $392,378
* The average price of a condominium dropped four per cent to $236,612

Soper said a combination of lower mortgage prices and a housing supply shortage in parts of Canada helped push the market upward during the second quarter.

But he cautioned that the market still has a long way to go, when it comes to recovering the value lost during the recent setback.

“It’s going to look better for the second half of this year,” he said. “It’s not going to be a startlingly good year like earlier in the decade, but I think just the bounce-back, the comeback from where we were, is going to make a lot of Canadians feel a lot more comfortable about the homes they live in.”

In many Western Canadian cities, including Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver, housing prices are still between 10 and 15 per cent below what they were a year ago, Soper said. But they are “gaining back ground,” he said.

In Ontario, Royal LePage said Ottawa would likely see stable prices throughout 2009, with Toronto’s market stabilizing towards the end of the year.

Montreal is expected to remain a strong real estate market this year, helped by low interest and unemployment rates.

In Atlantic Canada, housing prices were much more stable than in cities further west in Canada throughout the recession, meaning that their pricing fluctuations have been less volatile overall, Soper said.

And according to the Royal LePage figures, demand for housing has so far been strong in 2009, due to strong local economies coupled with moderate housing prices.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090707/real_estate_090707/20090707?hub=CanadaAM

brought by Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO

On the real estate front, the Newfoundland Government released their take on Newfoundland housing market conditions. While most of their data is from CREA and previously discussed earlier on this blog, I thought it important to “cut and paste” the PDF of the real estate section from the Economic Research and Analysis website as it recapped and touched on a number of important areas and facts.

Housing market conditions were robust in 2008. Housing starts increased to a level not seen since the early 1990s. Residential sales activity and prices reached record levels. Other capacity indicators like rental vacancy rates are at, or remain near, historical lows. Increased housing demand stemmed from strong economic performance, low interest rates, optimism about future major projects, and household formation.

Housing Starts

During 2008, housing starts totalled 3,261 units, up 23.1% compared to 2007. This was in contrast to activity in the Maritimes and Canada, where starts declined by 7.9% and 7.6%, respectively. While urban areas account for approximately two thirds of housing starts in the province, both urban and rural areas recorded significant gains in 2008. Urban housing starts were up 22.1% to 2,229 units and rural starts were up 25.2% to 1,032 units. Total housing starts are expected to fall to 2,648 units in 2009 as the global recession and slumping housing market in the rest of Canada weakens local consumer confidence. Since 1989, housing starts have averaged 2,333 units per year. Therefore, even with the decline expected this year, housing starts will be at relatively high levels for the local industry.

Residential Sales and Prices

Residential sales activity and prices increased to record levels last year. The number of residential properties sold in the province through the Canadian Real Estate Association’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) during 2008 was 4,695, an increase of 5.0% from 4,471 in 2007.  This performance was in contrast to the national residential market. MLS® sales decreased by 17.1% in Canada and 8.9% in the Maritime provinces during 2008. According to CREA, the number of MLS® sales in the province is expected to decline by 14.8% in 2009 to 4,000.
Strong demand for housing, especially during the summer months, created a buying frenzy in 2008. The average number of active MLS® listings in the province (a measure of housing availability/supply) declined by 38.3% to 1,495 from 2,423 in 2007. Homes were being purchased as soon as they hit the market and sellers were receiving multiple offers — sometimes well above the asking price. As a result of increased demand, housing prices increased. During 2008, the average MLS® residential price was $178,477, an increase of 19.6% compared to 2007. The fourth quarter average MLS® residential price surged 27.2% over the fourth quarter in 2007, representing the only growth market in Canada.
Increased housing demand in recent years is the result of employment and income growth; household formation; low mortgage rates; and a positive business environment, facilitated in part by continued optimism surrounding a number of future major projects. In addition to these factors, industry indicated that demand for residential units was also being fuelled by expatriates living in other provinces and from residents who commute to other provinces for work purchasing property for personal use and/or investment purposes.

Rental Market
Rental vacancy rates are at or near historical lows throughout Newfoundland and Labrador. Vacancy rates in urban areas have decreased from a high of 15.4% in 1997 to just 1.1% in 2008. During 2008, vacancy rates were lowest in the St. John’s CMA (0.8%) and Corner Brook CA (0.9%), followed by Grand Falls-Windsor CA (1.9%), Gander (2.6%), and Bay Roberts CA (4.0%). Although vacancy rates are low, rental prices remain the lowest in Atlantic Canada. In 2008, the average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment in Newfoundland and Labrador was $596 compared to $635 in New Brunswick, $660 in Prince Edward Island, and $795 in Nova Scotia. It is expected that improved labour markets, positive netmigration, higher housing prices, and a lack of new rental construction will keep vacancy rates low and place upward pressure on rental prices.

http://www.stjohnsrealestateonline.com/economy-2009-newfoundland-real-estate-section/

Reviewed by Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO

Also this week,  Re/Max Canada released their Recreational Properties Report.  What they’ve found is:

Generation X purchasers are poised to replace aging baby boomers as the major force in recreational property markets across the country, according to a report released today by RE/MAX.

The demographic shift was noted in the 2009 RE/MAX Recreational Property Report highlighting sales, pricing, trends and developments in 50 Canadian markets. The report found demand from Gen X (those born between 1965 and 1980) has nearly doubled over one year ago. Seventy-four per cent of markets surveyed this year reported a marked trend toward thirty-something buyers snapping up affordably-priced product, ranging from waterfront cottages to resort condominiums, compared to just 40 per cent in 2008.

“After being priced out of most markets for the better half of the last decade, Gen X purchasers now have the financial wherewithal to buy recreational product at virtually every price point,” says Michael Polzler, Executive Vice President, Regional Director, RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada. “Gen X is ideally positioned to pick up any slack in recreational property markets caused by softer demand from baby boomers and retirees. They represent the next wave of recreational property owners in Canada and they know it.”

The financial strength of the cohort dovetails well with current market realities. Sixty-six per cent of recreational property markets surveyed reported a decline in the number of recreational product sold in the first four months of 2009, while 22 per cent indicated sales were either up or on par compared to one year ago. While the combination of inclement weather and a global recession clearly hampered sales activity earlier in the year, many major centres are currently experiencing an upswing in activity as the traditional cottage season gets underway.

“Much of the activity in the marketplace today has to do with the mindset of this particular generation,” says Elton Ash, Regional Executive Vice President, RE/MAX of Western Canada. “More important than the investment aspect is the commitment to lifestyle. The purchase of a waterfront home or a condominium is more than a simple transaction to Gen X purchasers – owning a recreational property underscores their dedication to family and balance.”

The time to buy has never been better. With four exceptions, recreational property prices have softened in most major markets across the country. Only on the Newfoundland Coast and in Ontario, from Innisfil to Oro, Kingston, and Beaverton, have values increased this year compared to 2008. Starting prices remain similar to one year ago and in some cases are even higher.

“While buyer’s market conditions exist virtually across the board, sellers of recreational properties from coast-to-coast are clearly content to wait out the storm,” says Polzler. “They are in no hurry to unload their product. Many have held on to their properties for generations – they’re fully-owned yet underutilized, which has prompted some aging owners to list them for sale.”

The report also found that while lowball offers are on the rise, very few meet with success. Through tough negotiations with multiple sign backs, purchasers who are serious tend to find out the hard way that sellers are serious too. As a result, the sales-to-list ratio remains relatively high in most recreational property markets across the country.

“The prospect of greater stability down the road is creating cautious optimism in the marketplace,” says Ash. “Purchasers are seeking to buy quality product, whether it be situated on lakes, rivers, or ponds, before values start to once-again edge up.”

Highlights:
• Supply is adequate in most markets, but heated activity in the lower-end has resulted in tight inventory levels for entry-level product in 18 per cent of markets including: Bancroft, Combermere, Honey Harbour/Port Severn, West Kawarthas, Orillia, Flesherton, North Saskatchewan, and Salt Spring Island.
• Older cottage owners, many who own their properties outright, are selling to younger purchasers with families.
• Some American cottage owners in Canada are taking advantage of the stronger dollar to cash out of the market.
• American purchasers have largely fallen off the radar, with some exceptions: Lake Winnipeg, Shediac Bay, and Sault Ste. Marie.
• Pent-up demand is a factor in the marketplace, as those purchasers who had intended on buying recreational properties in the latter half of 2008 deferred their purchases to 2009.
• Older Canadians continue to seek secondary homes in warmer parts of the U.S such as Florida, Arizona, California, and Nevada.
• Generation X purchasers are prepared to spend their hard-earned dollars on recreational properties, but at the end of the day, they want to know that they’ve negotiated the best deal possible.
• The upper-end has somewhat softened in markets across the country.

The full in depth report can be downloaded here .  I highly recommend giving it a read, as it covers cottage towns all over Canada. If you’d like the names of some great cottage property sales reps, send me an email, I’d love to help!

reviewed by Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO

The Hebron asset, which consists of the Hebron, Ben Nevis and West Ben Nevis fields, was first discovered in 1981. Chevron Canada Limited is the operator for the Hebron project with a 28 per cent working interest. The asset is located in offshore Newfoundland’s Jeanne d’Arc basin and is approximately eight km north of the Terra Nova oilfield. Partners signed a Unitization and Joint Operating Agreement in 2005. Hebron is a heavy oil reservoir with significant technical and commercial challenges and is estimated to have 400-700 million barrels of resources. Project partners include: ExxonMobil Canada (37.9%), Petro-Canada (23.9%), and Norsk Hydro (10.2%).

GREAT news for the St. John’s Real Estate Market!

Presented by Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO

http://activerain.com/blogsview/182340/hebron-ben-nevis-oil-project-a-go-for-newfoundland

* Would be first time below 200,000 in seven years

* Existing home sales, prices also seen falling

* Slight rebound seen in 2010

(Adds details)

By Ka Yan Ng

TORONTO, Feb 19 (Reuters) – New home construction in Canada is expected to drop by 24 percent this year as part of the fallout from a slowing economy, but rebound in 2010, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp forecast on Thursday.

Housing starts are seen to be about 160,250 units for 2009, down sharply from 211,056 units in 2008, the country’s national housing agency said in its first-quarter Housing Market Outlook report.

The forecast was revised lower from its the fourth-quarter outlook, which predicted in October that Canadian home building would slip to 177,975 units this year.

This would put starts below 200,000 units for the first time in seven years.

Low mortgage rates and a growing economy contributed to a healthy housing market for years. But home construction, a cornerstone of Canadian growth, has steadily declined in each of last four months as the economy felt the bite of the global financial crisis.

“The economic downturn will result in a decrease in demand for home ownership leading to a decline in housing starts and existing home sales in 2009,” Bob Dugan, chief economist for CMHC, said in a statement.

“Housing market activity will begin to strengthen as the Canadian economy rebounds in 2010 and the level of housing starts over the forecast period will be more in line with demographic fundamentals. ”

All 10 provinces are expected to show declines in new home construction this year, it said, led by the Western provinces, each with more than 30-percent drops expected for the year.

Most provinces may see an uptick in home building activity in 2010, with the exception of Quebec and British Columbia.

Existing home sales, explaines Moishe Alexander, as measured by the Multiple Listing Service system used by real estate agents, are expected to decline 14.6 percent during 2009 to 370,500 units from 433,990 units last year. The average home price is expected to fall 5.2 percent to C$287,900 ($230,320) from C$303,607 a year ago.

Last week, data showed sales of previously owned Canadian homes plunged 41 percent in January from a year earlier while prices dropped 11 percent.

Looking to 2010, starts should rise a bit to 163,350 units, CMHC said, while home sales and prices are also expected to climb.

Sales of previously-owned homes are expected to rise by 9.3 percent to 405,000 units in 2010, and the average national home price may inch higher to C$288,100 from the forecasted 2009 level, CMHC said.

($1=$1.25 Canadian) (Reporting by Ka Yan Ng; Editing by Jeffrey Hodgson)