A new forecast from a major Canadian real estate company predicts that the national housing market is stabilizing, after seeing a “remarkable turnaround” in the second quarter of 2009.

Royal LePage predicts that the selling price of the average house will drop by only two per cent this year — an improvement over the real estate company’s prior forecast from six months ago that predicted a three per cent drop.

The real estate company also predicts that the number of unit sales will drop about one per cent in 2009 to an estimated 430,000 sales.

Phil Soper, the president and CEO of Royal LePage Real Estate Services, said that the forecast adjustment is the result of the improved real estate sales numbers seen in the second quarter of this year.

“We’ve got the most important quarter in the real estate calendar behind us — the second quarter — and it really was a remarkable turnaround,” Soper said during an interview on CTV’s Canada AM on Tuesday morning.

“As steep as the decline was, the bounce-back was just as dramatic,” he added.

While the year’s second quarter saw housing prices beginning to appreciate, the average national housing prices still remain below their values from 12 months ago.

According to the Royal LePage figures:

* The average price of a detached bungalow declined to $327,964, about 3.5 per cent below what it was the year before
* The average price of a two-storey home was down 3.7 per cent to $392,378
* The average price of a condominium dropped four per cent to $236,612

Soper said a combination of lower mortgage prices and a housing supply shortage in parts of Canada helped push the market upward during the second quarter.

But he cautioned that the market still has a long way to go, when it comes to recovering the value lost during the recent setback.

“It’s going to look better for the second half of this year,” he said. “It’s not going to be a startlingly good year like earlier in the decade, but I think just the bounce-back, the comeback from where we were, is going to make a lot of Canadians feel a lot more comfortable about the homes they live in.”

In many Western Canadian cities, including Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver, housing prices are still between 10 and 15 per cent below what they were a year ago, Soper said. But they are “gaining back ground,” he said.

In Ontario, Royal LePage said Ottawa would likely see stable prices throughout 2009, with Toronto’s market stabilizing towards the end of the year.

Montreal is expected to remain a strong real estate market this year, helped by low interest and unemployment rates.

In Atlantic Canada, housing prices were much more stable than in cities further west in Canada throughout the recession, meaning that their pricing fluctuations have been less volatile overall, Soper said.

And according to the Royal LePage figures, demand for housing has so far been strong in 2009, due to strong local economies coupled with moderate housing prices.

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Interesting news, presented by Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO

The Royal Bank says the Canadian economy will shrink by 2.4 per cent this year, due in part to the substantial 5.4 per cent annual GDP contraction in the first quarter.

That’s the worst quarterly economic performance since 1991 and likely the worst in the current recession.

“Our forecast is for the second quarter’s contraction to be smaller, although, like the United States, Canada is facing the headwinds from the auto industry’s problems,” the bank says.

“The outlook for the consumer for the remainder of this year is a mixed bag. Spending has sagged in recent months as the financial market crisis and job cuts took a large bite out of confidence and sent consumers to the sidelines. However, with interest rates falling to all-time lows and impending government spending programs expected to limit the number of jobs lost, a moderate rebound in spending is likely later this year.”

It also said activity in Canada’s real-estate markets has already picked up, with sales of existing homes rising 11.2 per cent in April, marking the third monthly increase compare car insurance rates.

The Royal predicts growth will return next year as the U.S. and Canadian economies benefit from low interest rates, firmer credit markets and government stimulus programs.

“Export demand is likely to rise as commodity prices stabilize and the U.S. economy (still Canada’s biggest trading partner) climbs out of recession. However, tempering this source of future strength will be an attendant rise in imports, reflecting both increasing Canadian domestic demand and an appreciating loonie.”

In a forecast of the provincial economies in Canada, the bank says growth will hit 2.5 per cent next year.

After shrinking this year because of lower energy prices, Newfoundland will lead all the provinces in growth in 2010, while Ontario and Prince Edward island will have the slowest growth.

The bank says the national jobless rate will hit nine per cent, compared with an average of 8.5 per cent this year.

* Would be first time below 200,000 in seven years

* Existing home sales, prices also seen falling

* Slight rebound seen in 2010

(Adds details)

By Ka Yan Ng

TORONTO, Feb 19 (Reuters) – New home construction in Canada is expected to drop by 24 percent this year as part of the fallout from a slowing economy, but rebound in 2010, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp forecast on Thursday.

Housing starts are seen to be about 160,250 units for 2009, down sharply from 211,056 units in 2008, the country’s national housing agency said in its first-quarter Housing Market Outlook report.

The forecast was revised lower from its the fourth-quarter outlook, which predicted in October that Canadian home building would slip to 177,975 units this year.

This would put starts below 200,000 units for the first time in seven years.

Low mortgage rates and a growing economy contributed to a healthy housing market for years. But home construction, a cornerstone of Canadian growth, has steadily declined in each of last four months as the economy felt the bite of the global financial crisis.

“The economic downturn will result in a decrease in demand for home ownership leading to a decline in housing starts and existing home sales in 2009,” Bob Dugan, chief economist for CMHC, said in a statement.

“Housing market activity will begin to strengthen as the Canadian economy rebounds in 2010 and the level of housing starts over the forecast period will be more in line with demographic fundamentals. ”

All 10 provinces are expected to show declines in new home construction this year, it said, led by the Western provinces, each with more than 30-percent drops expected for the year.

Most provinces may see an uptick in home building activity in 2010, with the exception of Quebec and British Columbia.

Existing home sales, explaines Moishe Alexander, as measured by the Multiple Listing Service system used by real estate agents, are expected to decline 14.6 percent during 2009 to 370,500 units from 433,990 units last year. The average home price is expected to fall 5.2 percent to C$287,900 ($230,320) from C$303,607 a year ago.

Last week, data showed sales of previously owned Canadian homes plunged 41 percent in January from a year earlier while prices dropped 11 percent.

Looking to 2010, starts should rise a bit to 163,350 units, CMHC said, while home sales and prices are also expected to climb.

Sales of previously-owned homes are expected to rise by 9.3 percent to 405,000 units in 2010, and the average national home price may inch higher to C$288,100 from the forecasted 2009 level, CMHC said.

($1=$1.25 Canadian) (Reporting by Ka Yan Ng; Editing by Jeffrey Hodgson)

Given that sales will fall and listings will rise, the market will ease slightly over the coming year. Average resale prices will continue to increase, but more slowly than in recent years.

A higher proportion of condominium sales will take place in the suburbs and in the less expensive sectors on the Island of Montréal, which will contribute to limiting the growth in prices. For the market overall, prices will therefore rise by 4 per cent in 2008 and by 3 per cent in 2009. Still, on the whole, the market will remain favourable to sellers in the short term and gradually ease toward more balanced conditions in 2009.

Here is the break down of the report:

• Mortgage rates are expected to be relatively stable
• Resale market will be moderately slow
• Condominiums will maintain more demand than single family houses
• Supply of home listings with increase slightly.
• Affordable homes are expected to register increases in starts.
• Prices for single family homes and plexes will go up by an average 4 % in 2009
• Condo prices are expected to grow by 3%

Now, let’s take a look at the details…

Change of pace for the economy

In 2009, despite the anticipated decrease in residential construction, several nonresidential projects announced by the different levels of governments, such as the replacement of the Turcot Interchange and the modernization of Notre-Dame Street, will boost employment growth in the construction sector.
However, the level of activity in the manufacturing sector will moderate.

Mortgage rates are expected to be relatively stable

“Posted mortgage rates will decrease slightly in the first half of 2009 as the cost of credit to financial institutions eases. Rising bond yields, however, will nudge mortgage rates marginally higher in the latter half 2009.”

**Note: The Back of Canada already made cuts to the interest rates. Check the December 9th press release.
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 20 January 2009.

Resale market to slow moderately

The growth in prices will be slower for existing homes than for new homes, which will widen the price gap between them and consequently prompt more buyers to turn to the resale market.
While slightly less active, the resale market will still remain strong. The sales levels forecast for 2008 and 2009 will exceed the annual average of 39,000 transactions recorded for the period from 2002 to 2007.

Condominiums will maintain the upper hand

Condominiums—the only housing type that will register an increase in sales in 2008—will sustain a less significant decline in demand than single-family houses or plexes 2009.
Affordable housing types, such as condominiums, and homes located in less expensive geographic sectors, are managing better.

Slightly more supply on the market

This is good news, says Moishe Alexander

Montreal Listing Trends 2009

Currently, the supply of homes is growing. Listings started to rise again in the second quarter of 2008, and there is every indication that they will end the year up by 7 per cent over 2007. As well, we forecast that they will maintain this momentum in 2009, with an increase of 9 per cent. At the end of 2008, an average of 22,300 active listings per month will have been registered in the GMREB MLS® system for the Montréal CMA.

Affordable homes will again stand out

Overall, total starts will fall this year. However, the opposite will hold true for more affordable housing types, which are expected to register increases in starts. After having exploded in 2007, with a gain of 35 per cent, semi-detached and row housing starts will maintain their momentum this year and rise by 14 per cent to 2,200 units.

Condominium starts will increase, to a lesser extent.

In 2009, these two housing types will again stand out. Semi-detached and row home starts will stay at the same level as in 2008, while condominium starts will register a smaller decrease than the declines that will be recorded for single detached home building and rental housing construction. In all, 7,700 new condominium units will be started next year, or 4 per cent fewer than in 2008.

The downward trend in single detached home starts

Single Detached Housing Starts

It began a few years ago, will continue. Because these houses are more expensive, also because the population is aging and households are getting smaller, the need for more spacious homes is less significant than before.