As a result of a sizzling month of sales in June, Canada’s two largest real estate markets — Toronto and Vancouver — came close to breaking their all-time sales records.

In Toronto, the nearly 11,000 properties sold last month marked a 27 per cent sales increase over the previous June. And in Vancouver, where 4,259 units changed hands last month, sales were up 75.6 per cent from 12 months ago.

Major year-over-year gains were also seen in Calgary (28 per cent), Regina (24 per cent), Edmonton (15.8 per cent) and Ottawa (12.5 per cent). Sales were also up 5.2 per cent in the Halifax-Dartmouth area over the previous June and had inched up 0.8 per cent in Newfoundland and Labrador.

According to RE/MAX, most of Canada’s major real estate markets had begun to recover from the recession as early as March, with sales picking further up in April and May, leading to the high levels of sales seen in June.

Michael Polzler, the executive vice-president of RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada, says the boom in sales is the result of affordable prices and mortgages, as well as pent-up demand among homebuyers.

It’s a trend that could also help the wider economy, he said, because it will spur homeowners to spend on home improvements.

“When people start buying houses, they have to buy all the things that go along with those houses,” Polzler told CTV’s Canada AM on Monday morning. “Often it means a new fridge, a new carpet, painting, fixing up this, fixing up that. Even when you buy a new house, there’s a lot of things to buy. So, it helps everybody connected.”

Looking forward to the rest of the year, RE/MAX is expecting to see a more stable real estate market, though sales may not continue at the current pace.

Polzler believes that many Canadians favour real estate as a form of investment, as opposed to putting their money in private business opportunities.

“Most Canadians are very uncomfortable and unsure about the stock market,” he said. “And when you see that through these difficult times, prices in real estate have come down a little bit in most places — and in many cases are back up — they feel a lot more control than they do in the stock market.”

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090713/real_estate_090713/20090713?hub=TopStories

reviewed by Moishe Alexander, CFC canadian funding corp CEO

A new forecast from a major Canadian real estate company predicts that the national housing market is stabilizing, after seeing a “remarkable turnaround” in the second quarter of 2009.

Royal LePage predicts that the selling price of the average house will drop by only two per cent this year — an improvement over the real estate company’s prior forecast from six months ago that predicted a three per cent drop.

The real estate company also predicts that the number of unit sales will drop about one per cent in 2009 to an estimated 430,000 sales.

Phil Soper, the president and CEO of Royal LePage Real Estate Services, said that the forecast adjustment is the result of the improved real estate sales numbers seen in the second quarter of this year.

“We’ve got the most important quarter in the real estate calendar behind us — the second quarter — and it really was a remarkable turnaround,” Soper said during an interview on CTV’s Canada AM on Tuesday morning.

“As steep as the decline was, the bounce-back was just as dramatic,” he added.

While the year’s second quarter saw housing prices beginning to appreciate, the average national housing prices still remain below their values from 12 months ago.

According to the Royal LePage figures:

* The average price of a detached bungalow declined to $327,964, about 3.5 per cent below what it was the year before
* The average price of a two-storey home was down 3.7 per cent to $392,378
* The average price of a condominium dropped four per cent to $236,612

Soper said a combination of lower mortgage prices and a housing supply shortage in parts of Canada helped push the market upward during the second quarter.

But he cautioned that the market still has a long way to go, when it comes to recovering the value lost during the recent setback.

“It’s going to look better for the second half of this year,” he said. “It’s not going to be a startlingly good year like earlier in the decade, but I think just the bounce-back, the comeback from where we were, is going to make a lot of Canadians feel a lot more comfortable about the homes they live in.”

In many Western Canadian cities, including Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver, housing prices are still between 10 and 15 per cent below what they were a year ago, Soper said. But they are “gaining back ground,” he said.

In Ontario, Royal LePage said Ottawa would likely see stable prices throughout 2009, with Toronto’s market stabilizing towards the end of the year.

Montreal is expected to remain a strong real estate market this year, helped by low interest and unemployment rates.

In Atlantic Canada, housing prices were much more stable than in cities further west in Canada throughout the recession, meaning that their pricing fluctuations have been less volatile overall, Soper said.

And according to the Royal LePage figures, demand for housing has so far been strong in 2009, due to strong local economies coupled with moderate housing prices.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090707/real_estate_090707/20090707?hub=CanadaAM

brought by Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO

Also this week,  Re/Max Canada released their Recreational Properties Report.  What they’ve found is:

Generation X purchasers are poised to replace aging baby boomers as the major force in recreational property markets across the country, according to a report released today by RE/MAX.

The demographic shift was noted in the 2009 RE/MAX Recreational Property Report highlighting sales, pricing, trends and developments in 50 Canadian markets. The report found demand from Gen X (those born between 1965 and 1980) has nearly doubled over one year ago. Seventy-four per cent of markets surveyed this year reported a marked trend toward thirty-something buyers snapping up affordably-priced product, ranging from waterfront cottages to resort condominiums, compared to just 40 per cent in 2008.

“After being priced out of most markets for the better half of the last decade, Gen X purchasers now have the financial wherewithal to buy recreational product at virtually every price point,” says Michael Polzler, Executive Vice President, Regional Director, RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada. “Gen X is ideally positioned to pick up any slack in recreational property markets caused by softer demand from baby boomers and retirees. They represent the next wave of recreational property owners in Canada and they know it.”

The financial strength of the cohort dovetails well with current market realities. Sixty-six per cent of recreational property markets surveyed reported a decline in the number of recreational product sold in the first four months of 2009, while 22 per cent indicated sales were either up or on par compared to one year ago. While the combination of inclement weather and a global recession clearly hampered sales activity earlier in the year, many major centres are currently experiencing an upswing in activity as the traditional cottage season gets underway.

“Much of the activity in the marketplace today has to do with the mindset of this particular generation,” says Elton Ash, Regional Executive Vice President, RE/MAX of Western Canada. “More important than the investment aspect is the commitment to lifestyle. The purchase of a waterfront home or a condominium is more than a simple transaction to Gen X purchasers – owning a recreational property underscores their dedication to family and balance.”

The time to buy has never been better. With four exceptions, recreational property prices have softened in most major markets across the country. Only on the Newfoundland Coast and in Ontario, from Innisfil to Oro, Kingston, and Beaverton, have values increased this year compared to 2008. Starting prices remain similar to one year ago and in some cases are even higher.

“While buyer’s market conditions exist virtually across the board, sellers of recreational properties from coast-to-coast are clearly content to wait out the storm,” says Polzler. “They are in no hurry to unload their product. Many have held on to their properties for generations – they’re fully-owned yet underutilized, which has prompted some aging owners to list them for sale.”

The report also found that while lowball offers are on the rise, very few meet with success. Through tough negotiations with multiple sign backs, purchasers who are serious tend to find out the hard way that sellers are serious too. As a result, the sales-to-list ratio remains relatively high in most recreational property markets across the country.

“The prospect of greater stability down the road is creating cautious optimism in the marketplace,” says Ash. “Purchasers are seeking to buy quality product, whether it be situated on lakes, rivers, or ponds, before values start to once-again edge up.”

Highlights:
• Supply is adequate in most markets, but heated activity in the lower-end has resulted in tight inventory levels for entry-level product in 18 per cent of markets including: Bancroft, Combermere, Honey Harbour/Port Severn, West Kawarthas, Orillia, Flesherton, North Saskatchewan, and Salt Spring Island.
• Older cottage owners, many who own their properties outright, are selling to younger purchasers with families.
• Some American cottage owners in Canada are taking advantage of the stronger dollar to cash out of the market.
• American purchasers have largely fallen off the radar, with some exceptions: Lake Winnipeg, Shediac Bay, and Sault Ste. Marie.
• Pent-up demand is a factor in the marketplace, as those purchasers who had intended on buying recreational properties in the latter half of 2008 deferred their purchases to 2009.
• Older Canadians continue to seek secondary homes in warmer parts of the U.S such as Florida, Arizona, California, and Nevada.
• Generation X purchasers are prepared to spend their hard-earned dollars on recreational properties, but at the end of the day, they want to know that they’ve negotiated the best deal possible.
• The upper-end has somewhat softened in markets across the country.

The full in depth report can be downloaded here .  I highly recommend giving it a read, as it covers cottage towns all over Canada. If you’d like the names of some great cottage property sales reps, send me an email, I’d love to help!

reviewed by Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO

The Hebron asset, which consists of the Hebron, Ben Nevis and West Ben Nevis fields, was first discovered in 1981. Chevron Canada Limited is the operator for the Hebron project with a 28 per cent working interest. The asset is located in offshore Newfoundland’s Jeanne d’Arc basin and is approximately eight km north of the Terra Nova oilfield. Partners signed a Unitization and Joint Operating Agreement in 2005. Hebron is a heavy oil reservoir with significant technical and commercial challenges and is estimated to have 400-700 million barrels of resources. Project partners include: ExxonMobil Canada (37.9%), Petro-Canada (23.9%), and Norsk Hydro (10.2%).

GREAT news for the St. John’s Real Estate Market!

Presented by Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO

http://activerain.com/blogsview/182340/hebron-ben-nevis-oil-project-a-go-for-newfoundland

Interesting news, presented by Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO

The Royal Bank says the Canadian economy will shrink by 2.4 per cent this year, due in part to the substantial 5.4 per cent annual GDP contraction in the first quarter.

That’s the worst quarterly economic performance since 1991 and likely the worst in the current recession.

“Our forecast is for the second quarter’s contraction to be smaller, although, like the United States, Canada is facing the headwinds from the auto industry’s problems,” the bank says.

“The outlook for the consumer for the remainder of this year is a mixed bag. Spending has sagged in recent months as the financial market crisis and job cuts took a large bite out of confidence and sent consumers to the sidelines. However, with interest rates falling to all-time lows and impending government spending programs expected to limit the number of jobs lost, a moderate rebound in spending is likely later this year.”

It also said activity in Canada’s real-estate markets has already picked up, with sales of existing homes rising 11.2 per cent in April, marking the third monthly increase compare car insurance rates.

The Royal predicts growth will return next year as the U.S. and Canadian economies benefit from low interest rates, firmer credit markets and government stimulus programs.

“Export demand is likely to rise as commodity prices stabilize and the U.S. economy (still Canada’s biggest trading partner) climbs out of recession. However, tempering this source of future strength will be an attendant rise in imports, reflecting both increasing Canadian domestic demand and an appreciating loonie.”

In a forecast of the provincial economies in Canada, the bank says growth will hit 2.5 per cent next year.

After shrinking this year because of lower energy prices, Newfoundland will lead all the provinces in growth in 2010, while Ontario and Prince Edward island will have the slowest growth.

The bank says the national jobless rate will hit nine per cent, compared with an average of 8.5 per cent this year.

Given that sales will fall and listings will rise, the market will ease slightly over the coming year. Average resale prices will continue to increase, but more slowly than in recent years.

A higher proportion of condominium sales will take place in the suburbs and in the less expensive sectors on the Island of Montréal, which will contribute to limiting the growth in prices. For the market overall, prices will therefore rise by 4 per cent in 2008 and by 3 per cent in 2009. Still, on the whole, the market will remain favourable to sellers in the short term and gradually ease toward more balanced conditions in 2009.

Here is the break down of the report:

• Mortgage rates are expected to be relatively stable
• Resale market will be moderately slow
• Condominiums will maintain more demand than single family houses
• Supply of home listings with increase slightly.
• Affordable homes are expected to register increases in starts.
• Prices for single family homes and plexes will go up by an average 4 % in 2009
• Condo prices are expected to grow by 3%

Now, let’s take a look at the details…

Change of pace for the economy

In 2009, despite the anticipated decrease in residential construction, several nonresidential projects announced by the different levels of governments, such as the replacement of the Turcot Interchange and the modernization of Notre-Dame Street, will boost employment growth in the construction sector.
However, the level of activity in the manufacturing sector will moderate.

Mortgage rates are expected to be relatively stable

“Posted mortgage rates will decrease slightly in the first half of 2009 as the cost of credit to financial institutions eases. Rising bond yields, however, will nudge mortgage rates marginally higher in the latter half 2009.”

**Note: The Back of Canada already made cuts to the interest rates. Check the December 9th press release.
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 20 January 2009.

Resale market to slow moderately

The growth in prices will be slower for existing homes than for new homes, which will widen the price gap between them and consequently prompt more buyers to turn to the resale market.
While slightly less active, the resale market will still remain strong. The sales levels forecast for 2008 and 2009 will exceed the annual average of 39,000 transactions recorded for the period from 2002 to 2007.

Condominiums will maintain the upper hand

Condominiums—the only housing type that will register an increase in sales in 2008—will sustain a less significant decline in demand than single-family houses or plexes 2009.
Affordable housing types, such as condominiums, and homes located in less expensive geographic sectors, are managing better.

Slightly more supply on the market

This is good news, says Moishe Alexander

Montreal Listing Trends 2009

Currently, the supply of homes is growing. Listings started to rise again in the second quarter of 2008, and there is every indication that they will end the year up by 7 per cent over 2007. As well, we forecast that they will maintain this momentum in 2009, with an increase of 9 per cent. At the end of 2008, an average of 22,300 active listings per month will have been registered in the GMREB MLS® system for the Montréal CMA.

Affordable homes will again stand out

Overall, total starts will fall this year. However, the opposite will hold true for more affordable housing types, which are expected to register increases in starts. After having exploded in 2007, with a gain of 35 per cent, semi-detached and row housing starts will maintain their momentum this year and rise by 14 per cent to 2,200 units.

Condominium starts will increase, to a lesser extent.

In 2009, these two housing types will again stand out. Semi-detached and row home starts will stay at the same level as in 2008, while condominium starts will register a smaller decrease than the declines that will be recorded for single detached home building and rental housing construction. In all, 7,700 new condominium units will be started next year, or 4 per cent fewer than in 2008.

The downward trend in single detached home starts

Single Detached Housing Starts

It began a few years ago, will continue. Because these houses are more expensive, also because the population is aging and households are getting smaller, the need for more spacious homes is less significant than before.

OTTAWA, March 9, 2009 — The seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of housing starts declined to 134,600 units in February from 153,500 units in January, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

“Increased listings and reduced sales in the existing home market continue to impact the new home market,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. “The decrease in February housing starts is partly attributable to the volatile multiple starts segment. In any given month and given its relative importance, the volatility of the multiple starts segment can exaggerate monthly movements up or down in the rate of housing starts.”

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts decreased 14.9 per cent to 107,800 units in February. Urban multiple starts decreased 17.5 per cent to 63,300 units, while urban single starts fell 11 per cent to 44,500 units in February.

February’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts moderated in all of Canada’s regions except Atlantic Canada, where urban starts increased by 10.8 per cent. Urban starts fell by 19.6 per cent in Quebec, 14.4 per cent in Ontario, 19.4 per cent in the Prairies, and 12.8 per cent in British Columbia.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 26,800 units in February2.

New home construction is slowing to more sustainable levels and starts are forecast to come in at 160,250 units, within a range of 141,000 to 180,000 units in 2009. These trends are reflected in the year-to-date actual starts. These decreases, however, should be viewed in the context that housing starts have been exceptionally strong over the past 7 years, exceeding 200,000 units per year.

Moishe Alexander Says: As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable, and affordable homes — homes that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country.

For more info: http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/nero/nere/2009/2009-03-09-0815.cfm

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts declined to 153,500 units in January from 172,200 units in December of 2008, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

“To a certain extent, the decline in housing starts coincides with recent developments in the existing home market. Reduced sales and increased listings in the existing home market have led to reduced spillover demand in the new home market,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist.

Moishe Alexander says that the seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts decreased 15.6 per cent to 126,700 units in January. Urban multiple starts decreased 12.2 per cent to 76,700 units, while urban single starts fell 20.2 per cent to 50,000 units in January.

January’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts moderated in all of Canada’s five regions. Urban starts declined 8.6 per cent in Atlantic Canada, 1.4 per cent in Quebec, 14.6 per cent in Ontario, 30.3 per cent in the Prairies, and 29.1 per cent in British Columbia.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 26,800 units in January.

Actual starts in rural and urban areas combined decreased by an estimated 35.8 per cent in January this year compared to relatively high levels in January last year. Actual starts in urban areas have decreased by an estimated 40.4 per cent compared to the same month in 2008. Actual urban single starts for 2009 are 44.2 per cent lower than they were a year earlier while urban multiple starts are down 38.1 per cent.

As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable, and affordable homes — homes that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country.

For the full report, please see:

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/nero/nere/2009/2009-02-09-0815.cfm

January 9, 2009 — The seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of housing starts was 177,300 units in December, down marginally from 178,000 units in November, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

“Housing starts in December were almost unchanged compared to November,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. “At an estimated 212,366 units, housing starts in 2008 breached the 200,000 unit mark for a seventh consecutive year.”

Pent-up housing demand which built up over the 1990s enabled Canadian housing starts to exceed long run demographic demand for the majority of this decade. This excess demand has gradually decreased and CMHC expects construction levels in 2009 to be more aligned with long run demographic demand.

According to Moishe Alexander CEO of Canadian Funding Corporation, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts decreased 0.5 per cent to 150,100 units in December. Urban multiple starts increased 3.2 per cent to 87,400 units, while urban single starts eased 5.1 per cent to 62,700 units in December.

December’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts moderated in three of the five regions in Canada. Urban starts declined 12.6 per cent to 36,700 units in Quebec, 6.3 per cent to 25,100 units in the Prairies, and 3.6 per cent to 8,100 units in the Atlantic Region. British Columbia urban starts rose 9.9 per cent to 19,900 units and Ontario urban starts climbed 8.6 per cent to 60,300 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 27,200 units in December2.

For the year 2008, actual starts in rural and urban areas combined moderated by an estimated 7.0 per cent, compared to the same period last year. Year-to-date actual starts in urban areas have decreased by an estimated 3.3 per cent compared to 2007. Actual urban single starts for 2008 were 18.1 per cent lower than they were a year earlier while urban multiple starts were up by 9.8 per cent over the same period.

As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable, and affordable homes — homes that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country.

For more information, please see:

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/nero/nere/2009/2009-01-09-0815.cfm