Posted by Moishe Alexander
In 2009, new home starts will reach 350 new homes from 428 starts recorded in 2008, contracting by 18 per cent. Single-detached starts are forecast to decline by 20 per cent, while row homes and apartments will decrease by 14 per cent. The downward momentum in the economy has lessened new construction demand. Also, slower population growth and less spill-over demand from the resale market have contributed to the slow down in demand for new homes. However in 2010, this trend will change due to the gradually improving provincial economy and declining new home inventories. The number of starts will increase by six per cent to 370 units. Demand for affordable housing is increasing. A number of social housing projects are planned or underway to accommodate the increased demand for this type of housing.
The new home price will average 343,000 in 2009 and 355,000 in 2010. New single-detached prices will de- crease by 0.6 per cent in 2009 as the prices adjust to slower demand, consumer cautiousness and less con- struction of high-value homes. As the economy recovers in 2010, new home prices will increase by 3.5 per cent.
In the longer term, new home construction is expected to increase. Migration will be a dominant element in increasing demand for new homes. With land constraints raising prices in other areas and improved transportation and infrastructure projects making Peterborough more accessible to Toronto, it’s expected to see more in-migration to Peterborough. Aging baby boomers will increase their movement to Peterborough, seeing it as an attractive place for retirement. Furthermore, improved economic conditions and job prospects in the region in the next several years will reduce out-migration.
As home prices and mortgage carrying costs rise, the demand for the more expensive homes will be tempered. More interest will be seen for higher-density forms of housing in coming years. Even though demand for single-detached homes will slow, this type of housing will remain the product of choice for homebuyers. Single-detached homes demand in Peterborough is supported by mature migrants mainly coming from Toronto, availability of land and the price differential comparing to other centres in Ontario.
Demand for resale homes is expected to moderate by four per cent in 2009 to 2400 from 2506 recorded in 2008. In 2010, we will see the same trend. Sales will register 2300 sold homes, a decrease of four per cent from 2009. Low carrying costs, a relatively low unemployment rate and affordable prices will help to limit the decline in demand in 2009. Some purchases, initially planned for 2010, will take place in 2009 as people buy before anticipated mortgage rate increases raising sales in 2009 and lowering them in 2010.
In 2009, sellers have been hesitating about entering the housing market. As a result, new listings will decrease by 13 per cent in 2009. Moreover, the fall of new listings will outpace the decline of sales. In 2010, more new listings will flow into the market as sellers respond to rising prices.
The combination of declining new listings and improving sales by mid- 2009 meant that the sales-to-new- listings ratio, a barometer of future housing price growth and a measure of market conditions, moved up. Peterborough’s resale housing market has been balanced through much of 2009, but moved into sellers’ territory during some months. In 2010, the market is expected to be in balance for most of the year. A balanced market is characterized by price growth around the rate of inflation. Peterborough prices will increase by about four per cent in 2010, faster than in 2009. Resale prices are expected to increase by 1.7 per cent this year to $234,500 from $230,656 registered last year.